Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries had to take measures to mitigate its economic consequences. The measures for restricting the economic activities and the movement of people have affected the aggregates of quarterly national accounts as well as the quality and availability of many data sources that are commonly used in estimating the gross domestic product (GDP). Data show that the pandemic has largely led to a slowdown in Croatian economy since mid-March 2020.
The economic activity in the first quarter of 2021 shows a slowdown in the real GDP decline, while in the second quarter of 2021, a significant growth was realised compared to the same period of the previous year. GDP continued to grow in the third quarter of 2021 and the first estimate shows that the quarterly GDP increased in real terms by 15.8% in the third quarter of 2021, as compared to the same quarter of 2020. It was partly the result of the base effect, given that the real decline in GDP in the third quarter of 2020 was significant. Due to the rapid dynamics of the real GDP growth, its level exceeded the level from the same period of 2019 and it increased in real terms by 4.2% in the third quarter of this year, as compared to the same quarter of 2019.
| X-axis | 2008 crisis | 2020 crisis |
|---|---|---|
| -1 | Q3 2008 | Q4 2019 |
| 0 | Q4 2008 | Q1 2020 |
| 1 | Q1 2009 | Q2 2020 |
| 2 | Q2 2009 | Q3 2020 |
| 3 | Q3 2009 | Q4 2020 |
| 4 | Q4 2009 | 1Q 2021 |
| 5 | Q1 2010. | Q2 2021. |
| 6 | Q2 2010. | Q3 2021. |
The first estimate shows that the quarterly gross value added (GVA) increased in real terms by 13.5% in the third quarter of 2021, as compared to the same quarter of 2020, based on non-seasonally adjusted data. The quarterly growth in GVA was recorded in all activities and it was mostly influenced by Wholesale and retail trade, Transportation and storage, and Accommodation and food service activities. This growth was largely caused by an increase in the number of tourist arrivals and nights in commercial accommodation establishments. In addition, the GDP growth in the third quarter of this year was favourably affected by tourist movements (in the first eight months of this year, there were more tourist nights than in entire last year, which has not been recorded in the last 20 years).
Household consumption increased by 16.0% in the third quarter of 2021, mainly due to an increase in turnover from catering services, transport services and retail trade.
Government spending in the third quarter of 2021, although increasing slightly by 0.3% in nominal terms, decreased by 4.5% in real terms. It is a consequence of the growth in earnings that serve as a deflator in the calculation..
Gross fixed capital formation increased by 7.6% in real terms in the third quarter of 2021, which contributed to the GDP growth, accompanied by an increase in the volume of construction works and the volume of import of machinery and equipment.
In the third quarter of 2021, the export of goods and services recorded a significant growth in real terms, of 48.8%, while the import of goods and services recorded a growth of 13.9% in real terms.
