Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries had to take measures to mitigate its economic consequences. The measures for restricting the economic activities and the movement of people have affected the aggregates of quarterly national accounts as well as the quality and availability of many data sources that are commonly used in estimating the gross domestic product (GDP). Data show that the pandemic has largely led to a slowdown in Croatian economy since mid-March 2020.
The economic activity in the first quarter of 2021 shows a slowdown in the real GDP decline, while in other quarters of 2021, a significant growth was realised compared to the same periods of the previous year. In the last quarter of 2021, GDP thus increased in real terms by 9.7% compared to the same quarter of 2020. It was partly the result of the base effect, given that the real decline in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 was significant (-7.4%). With almost double-digit growth, the real GDP level in the fourth quarter of 2021 exceeded the level from the same period of 2019 and it increased in real terms by 1.6% in the fourth quarter of this year compared to the same quarter of 2019.
| X-axis | 2008 crisis | 2020 crisis |
|---|---|---|
| -1 | Q3 2008 | Q4 2019 |
| 0 | Q4 2008 | Q1 2020 |
| 1 | Q1 2009 | Q2 2020 |
| 2 | Q2 2009 | Q3 2020 |
| 3 | Q3 2009 | Q4 2020 |
| 4 | Q4 2009 | 1Q 2021 |
| 5 | Q1 2010. | Q2 2021. |
| 6 | Q2 2010. | Q3 2021. |
| 7 | Q3 2010. | Q4 2021. |
The first estimate shows that the quarterly gross value added (GVA) increased in real terms by 9.3% in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to the same quarter of 2020, based on non-seasonally adjusted data. The quarterly growth in GVA was recorded in all activities and it was mostly influenced by Wholesale and retail trade, Transportation and storage, and Accommodation and food service activities.
Household consumption increased in real terms by 7.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021, mainly due to an increase in turnover from catering services, transport services and retail trade.
Government spending increased by 14% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to the same period of the previous year.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the export of goods and services recorded a significant growth in real terms, of 31.7%, while the import of goods and services recorded a growth of 16.4% in real terms.
The first estimate of GDP for the last quarter of 2021 also included a preliminary estimate of GDP for 2021, which indicates a growth of 10.4%, which is also the highest real growth since 1995, when quarterly GDP started being estimated. Previous year's real growth exceeded the real level of GDP from 2019, by 1.5%. GVA also increased in real terms, by 8.9% compared to the previous year, being at the highest level since 1995, and by 2.1% compared to 2019.
