INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION VOLUME INDICES

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TIME SERIES AND TREND CYCLE, 2005

 

 

 

In June 2005, the industrial production in the Republic of Croatia was by 0.8% higher than in May 2005.

 

The monthly industrial production in the Republic of Croatia in June 2005, as compared to June 2004, increased by 7.3%.

 

As compared to the industrial production in the period from July 2003 to June 2004, the total industrial production in the period from July 2004 to June 2005 increased by 4.0%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regarding NKD 2002. sections, in June 2005, as compared to the previous month, Mining and quarrying increased by 0.1% and Manufacturing by 1.1%, while Electricity, gas and water supply decreased by 0.1%. Regarding the Main Industrial Groupings, Energy increased by 0.7%, Intermediate goods except energy by 1.1%, Capital goods by 0.2% and Non-durable consumer goods by 1.3%, while Durable consumer goods decreased by 0.8% .

 

 


1.   MONTHLY CHAIN CHANGE RATES (month compared with the previous one) CALCULATED ON THE BASIS
      OF TREND INDEX

 

2004.

2005.

VII.

VIII.

IX.

X.

XI.

XII.

I.

II.

III.

IV.

V.

VI.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total C, D and E

0,2

0,3

0,3

0,4

0,6

0,6

0,3

0,4

0,9

1,3

1,1

0,8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

According to NKD 2002. sections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

C            Mining and quarrying

-0,9

-1,6

-1,0

-1,2

-0,3

1,1

-0,2

-1,1

1,2

2,8

1,3

0,1

D            Manufacturing

0,3

0,5

0,5

0,7

1,0

0,9

0,5

0,4

0,9

1,5

1,5

1,1

E            Electricity, gas and water supply

0,5

-0,4

-1,2

-1,7

-1,5

-1,0

-0,2

0,9

1,0

0,1

-0,1

-0,1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

According to MIG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AE          Energy

-0,2

-0,8

-1,0

-2,0

-1,0

0,6

0,6

0,7

-0,1

-1,6

-0,6

0,7

AI            Intermediate goods, except energy

0,5

0,5

0,3

0,1

0,3

0,6

0,5

0,5

1,1

1,7

1,6

1,1

B            Capital goods

1,4

1,7

1,3

1,4

1,7

1,2

1,0

0,9

0,8

0,8

0,5

0,2

CD          Durable consumer goods

-0,1

0,0

0,3

0,4

0,1

-0,2

-0,5

-0,5

-0,3

-0,3

-0,6

-0,8

CN                         Non-durable consumer goods

0,1

0,0

0,4

1,6

1,9

0,8

0,0

0,6

0,9

1,0

1,4

1,3

 

 

 

In June 2005, as compared to the same production in June 2004, the industrial production in Manufacturing increased by 10.4%, in Mining and quarrying it remained at the same level,  while in Electricity, gas and water supply it decreased by 3.6%. Regarding the Main Industrial Groupings, Intermediate goods except energy increased by 9.4%, Capital goods by 13.5% and Non-durable consumer goods by 10.4%, while Energy decreased by 4.7% and Durable consumer goods by 2.5%.

 

 

 

 

2.         MONTHLY INTER-ANNUAL AND ANNUAL CHANGE RATES BASED ON TREND INDEX

 

Month compared with same month last year

Annual rates

2005.

VII.  2004. – VI.  2005.

VII.  2003. – VI. 2004.

I.

II.

III.

IV.

V.

VI.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total C, D and E

4,0

3,6

3,8

5,1

6,5

7,3

4,0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

According to NKD 2002. sections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

C            Mining and quarrying

-8,1

-8,8

-6,4

-2,0

0,1

0,0

-5,4

           Manufacturing

5,9

5,3

5,6

7,2

9,1

10,4

5,6

           Electricity, gas and water supply

1,0

0,9

0,1

-1,6

-2,8

-3,6

1,3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

According to MIG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AE          Energy

4,2

3,3

0,7

-3,4

-5,0

-4,7

0,9

AI            Intermediate goods except energy

5,2

4,5

4,9

6,6

8,4

9,4

5,9

B            Capital goods

13,1

12,8

13,1

14,2

14,4

13,5

10,6

CD          Durable consumer goods

0,4

-0,3

-1,0

-1,5

-1,9

-2,5

0,9

CN                         Non-durable consumer goods

3,2

3,4

3,6

5,0

8,1

10,4

2,7

 

 

 

Comparing the last twelve months with the previous ones (average annual chain change rate), Manufacturing increased by 5.6% and Electricity, gas and water supply by 1.3%, while Mining and quarrying decreased by 5.4%. Regarding the Main Industrial Groupings, Energy increased by 0.9%, Intermediate goods except energy by 5.9%, Capital goods by 10.6%, Durable consumer goods by 0.9% and Non-durable consumer goods by 2.7%.

 

 


3.   MONTHLY CHAIN CHANGE RATES OF SELECTED NKD 2002. DIVISIONS, CALCULATED ON THE BASIS OF
      TREND INDICES

 

2005.

I.

II.

III.

IV.

V.

VI.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11  Extraction of crude petroleum and natural
     gas; service activities incidental to oil and
     gas extraction, excluding surveying

0,9

-0,1

0,0

0,4

0,0

-0,4

15  Manufacture of food products and beverages

0,6

0,8

0,8

0,8

0,9

1,0

21  Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products

-0,6

0,3

1,0

1,2

0,8

0,5

22  Publishing, printing and reproduction of
     recorded media

1,4

0,9

1,3

1,9

1,8

1,3

23  Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum
     products and nuclear fuel

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,1

0,1

0,1

24  Manufacture of chemicals and chemical
     products

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

26  Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral
     products

0,4

0,4

0,9

0,3

0,8

2,2

28 Manufacture of fabricated metal products,
     except machinery and equipment

0,9

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,2

1,2

29  Manufacture of machinery and equipment
     n.e.c.

1,5

1,8

1,9

1,7

1,3

1,3

31  Manufacture of electrical machinery and
     apparatus n.e.c

2,4

2,2

1,7

1,4

1,8

2,1

35  Manufacture of other transport equipment

0,7

-0,3

-0,1

0,6

0,1

-0,1

40  Electricity, gas, steam and hot water supply

-0,3

0,7

0,7

0,1

0,0

-0,2

 

 

 

 

According to selected NKD 2002. divisions, in June 2005, as compared to the previous month, the industrial production in Manufacture of food products and beverages increased by 1.0%, in Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products by 0.5%, in Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media by 1.3%, in Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel by 0.1%, in Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products by 2.2%, in Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment by 1.2%, in Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c by 1.3%, in Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c by 2.1% and in Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products it remained at the same level, that is, the change rate was 0.0%, while in Extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas; service activities incidental to oil and gas extraction, excluding surveying it decreased by 0.4%, in Manufacture of other transport equipment by 0.1% and in Electricity, gas, steam and water supply by 0.2%.

 


4.   MONTHLY INTER-ANNUAL AND ANNUAL CHANGE RATES BASED ON TREND-CYCLE INDEX,
      ACCORDING TO SELECTED NKD 2002. DIVISIONS

 

Month compared with same
month last year

Annual rates

2005.

VII. 2004. – VI. 2005.
VII. 2003. – VI. 2004.

II.

III.

IV.

V.

VI.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11  Extraction of crude petroleum and natural
     gas; service activities incidental to oil and
     gas extraction, excluding surveying

-1,7

-2,3

-1,4

-0,9

-2,9

-1,6

15  Manufacture of food products and
     beverages

5,8

6,3

6,8

7,6

8,3

5,4

21  Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper
     products

4,6

5,1

5,1

3,9

2,7

5,0

22  Publishing, printing and reproduction of
     recorded media

13,9

15,6

19,5

23,3

25,1

12,4

23  Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum
     products and nuclear fuel

0,5

0,4

0,4

0,4

0,5

0,5

24  Manufacture of chemicals and chemical
     products

-0,2

-0,3

-0,3

-0,3

-0,3

-0,2

26  Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral
     products

8,0

8,8

5,4

2,5

4,5

4,4

28  Manufacture of fabricated metal products,
     except machinery and equipment

8,2

8,2

8,6

9,4

10,3

8,0

29  Manufacture of machinery and equipment
     n.e.c.

18,4

19,2

19,8

19,6

19,4

17,7

31  Manufacture of electrical machinery and
     apparatus n.e.c

9,9

11,9

13,9

16,5

19,4

6,1

35  Manufacture of other transport equipment

14,0

11,7

11,2

10,4

8,8

15,5

40  Electricity, gas, steam and hot water supply

0,9

-0,6

-2,4

-3,4

-4,2

1,8

 

 

 

 

In June 2005, as compared to June 2004, the industrial production, according to the selected NKD 2002. divisions, increased in Manufacture of food products and beverages by 8.3%, in Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products by 2.7%, in Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media by 25.1%, in Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel by 0.5%, in Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products by 4.5%, in Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment by 10.3%, in Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c by 19.4%, in Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c by 19.4% and in Manufacture of other transport equipment by 8.8%, while in Extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas; service activities incidental to oil and gas extraction, excluding surveying it decreased by 2.9%, in Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products by 0.3%,  and in Electricity, gas, steam and hot water supply by 4.2%.

 

 

 


 

In the period from July 2004 to June 2005, as compared to the previous twelve months, the industrial production according to the selected NKD 2002. divisions increased in the following divisions: Manufacture of food products and beverages by 5.4%, Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products by 5.0%, Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media by 12.4%, Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel by 0.5%, Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products by 4.4%, Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment by 8.0%, Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c by 17.7%, Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c. by 6.1%, Manufacture of other transport equipment by 15.5% and Electricity, gas, steam and hot water supply by 1.8%. At the same time, Extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas; service activities incidental to oil and gas extraction, excluding surveying decreased by 1.6% and in Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products by 0.2%.

 

All change rates in this Release were calculated on the basis of trend indices.

 

 

 

 

 

5.         INDICES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, ACCORDING TO SELECTED NKD 2002. DIVISIONS

2000. = 100

 

Original indices

Trend indices

2005.

2005.

IV.

V.

VI.

IV.

V.

VI.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11  Extraction of crude petroleum and natural
     gas; service activities incidental to oil and
     gas extraction, excluding surveying

95,1

94,0

85,5

94,3

94,3

93,9

15  Manufacture of food products and
     beverages

120,2

136,8

154,2

130,6

131,7

133,0

21  Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper
     products

134,2

136,5

139,2

127,6

128,6

129,2

22  Publishing, printing and reproduction of
     recorded media

203,7

222,1

216,0

207,7

211,5

214,3

23 Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum
     products and nuclear fuel

73,9

82,5

95,1

100,4

100,5

100,6

24  Manufacture of chemicals and chemical
     products

113,8

106,9

103,5

94,4

94,4

94,3

26 Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral
     products

160,7

166,7

165,5

139,7

140,9

143,9

28  Manufacture of fabricated metal products,
     except machinery and equipment

165,8

165,5

171,3

155,8

157,7

159,6

29 Manufacture of machinery and equipment
     n.e.c.

176,4

178,5

184,9

171,3

173,7

175,8

31 Manufacture of electrical machinery and
     apparatus n.e.c

168,7

158,6

183,0

164,4

167,4

170,9

35  Manufacture of other transport equipment

172,7

162,2

152,1

155,0

155,1

154,9

40  Electricity, gas, steam and hot water supply

115,4

108,6

102,4

117,4

117,4

117,1

 

 


6.   VOLUME INDICES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, TOTAL AND ACCORDING TO NKD 2002. SECTIONS

2000. = 100

 

Total C, D and E

C  Mining and quarrying

D  Manufacturing

E  Electricity, gas and water supply

 

Original
indices

Seasonally
adjusted
indices

Trend indices

Original indices

Seasonally
adjusted
indices

Trend indices

Original indices

Seasonally
adjusted
indices

Trend indices

Original
indices

Seasonally
adjusted
indices

Trend indices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004.

I.

99,1

115,3

117,9

111,1

124,4

123,9

94,4

114,5

118,4

124,4

109,1

109,9

II.

112,9

120,2

118,9

112,1

125,6

123,5

111,8

121,5

119,6

120,3

109,9

111,1

III.

128,5

123,0

119,7

122,4

121,6

121,7

130,0

125,4

120,3

121,3

112,4

113,1

IV.

121,6

120,0

119,7

121,1

120,1

119,6

122,6

119,6

120,3

114,9

116,4

115,2

V.

122,7

118,4

119,4

121,5

116,8

118,6

124,6

120,5

120,0

109,4

116,3

116,4

VI.

119,9

118,3

119,5

115,4

120,5

118,7

122,4

116,3

119,9

105,1

116,3

117,3

VII.

124,9

120,5

119,8

124,6

119,2

117,7

126,7

120,6

120,3

112,2

119,6

117,9

VIII.

116,4

119,5

120,1

117,1

113,1

115,7

116,7

120,9

120,9

113,6

117,4

117,4

IX.

125,8

121,1

120,4

122,1

116,9

114,6

128,1

121,6

121,6

111,8

116,7

116,0

X.

121,4

118,9

120,9

120,8

112,1

113,2

123,8

120,1

122,4

105,5

113,3

114,0

XI.

125,6

121,9

121,6

114,8

110,8

112,9

128,5

123,7

123,7

110,5

111,3

112,3

XII.

127,8

123,8

122,2

113,6

116,0

114,1

128,8

128,6

124,8

126,8

110,9

111,2

2005.

I.

105,4

122,1

122,6

101,3

114,8

113,9

102,6

125,2

125,4

125,1

108,8

111,0

II.

111,2

121,8

123,2

96,4

110,8

112,6

110,7

123,9

125,9

120,7

112,1

112,1

III.

124,8

121,5

124,2

111,6

111,7

114,0

125,9

122,2

127,1

123,2

114,4

113,1

IV.

129,3

127,3

125,8

121,9

120,2

117,1

132,7

131,4

128,9

110,1

112,8

113,3

V.

132,9

128,3

127,2

123,7

118,6

118,7

137,8

131,3

130,8

104,8

113,0

113,2

VI.

134,7

129,2

128,3

114,9

119,3

118,7

141,1

134,6

132,3

102,0

112,8

113,1

 

 

 

7.   VOLUME INDICES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, ACCORDING TO MIG

2000. = 100

 

Energy

Intermediate goods, except
energy

Capital goods

Durable consumer goods

Non-durable consumer goods

 

Original
indices

Seasonally
adjusted
indices

Trend
indices

Original
indices

Seasonally
adjusted
indices

Trend
indices

Original
indices

Seasonally
adjusted
indices

Trend
indices

Original
indices

Seasonally
adjusted
indices

Trend
indices

Original
indices

Seasonally
adjusted
indices

Trend
indices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004.

I.

118,5

105,2

105,0

89,0

113,7

121,2

89,2

105,9

121,3

101,1

108,2

109,1

101,9

121,1

121,5

II.

112,1

105,9

106,7

119,8

128,6

122,6

124,7

130,7

122,7

110,5

102,8

109,4

104,2

120,8

122,0

III.

115,6

108,7

109,4

139,3

129,3

123,5

137,0

126,8

123,4

120,2

111,7

109,8

124,6

124,5

122,8

IV.

112,0

114,4

112,2

131,5

125,0

123,6

120,4

113,6

123,1

119,8

115,9

110,1

119,0

124,0

122,4

V.

105,8

112,9

113,3

127,9

119,6

123,5

124,9

116,9

123,5

115,6

109,2

109,9

123,9

119,5

120,6

VI.

102,4

114,6

113,7

125,8

120,8

123,8

125,5

123,4

124,7

107,4

104,7

109,6

123,9

117,8

119,6

VII.

109,4

114,6

113,5

130,1

126,4

124,5

109,2

114,7

126,4

107,0

110,0

109,5

135,0

121,3

119,7

VIII.

108,1

111,8

112,6

114,5

124,4

125,1

120,0

135,7

128,6

86,3

103,5

109,5

123,1

118,7

119,6

IX.

107,1

113,4

111,4

141,3

131,8

125,5

131,0

125,9

130,3

107,2

106,2

109,8

120,7

118,9

120,2

X.

105,4

107,8

109,2

130,0

120,8

125,6

125,2

120,9

132,0

117,6

114,3

110,2

121,9

121,7

122,0

XI.

108,7

107,4

108,1

124,9

122,4

126,0

149,8

143,1

134,2

121,0

111,5

110,4

130,4

125,1

124,3

XII.

121,0

109,0

108,8

119,3

130,1

126,8

140,7

128,9

135,8

114,2

115,6

110,1

139,7

127,8

125,3

2005.

I.

122,4

109,2

109,4

103,1

128,2

127,4

114,3

135,7

137,2

98,6

105,6

109,6

102,2

122,3

125,3

II.

116,2

110,0

110,2

112,4

122,0

128,1

125,0

137,6

138,4

102,6

106,7

109,1

109,4

127,6

126,1

III.

119,4

112,0

110,1

127,7

124,3

129,6

139,6

131,8

139,5

110,5

105,1

108,7

123,9

126,5

127,2

IV.

103,7

106,6

108,4

145,1

132,6

131,7

153,1

144,4

140,6

117,6

113,6

108,4

123,0

128,1

128,5

V.

99,6

107,4

107,7

146,3

137,6

133,9

146,5

137,2

141,2

114,6

108,3

107,8

135,2

130,3

130,3

VI.

95,5

108,0

108,4

146,8

141,1

135,4

147,5

139,4

141,5

113,1

105,4

106,9

145,8

132,7

132,0

 


 

NOTES ON METHODOLOGY

 

Seasonal adjustment is made by using the TRAMO-SEATS method, on the monthly index series that starts with the January 1992 index. Trend is a series of seasonally adjusted indices from which a random component is excluded. Extension of index series, by adding new monthly observations for each new month, may cause, due to the character of the used seasonal adjustment method, subsequent corrections in seasonally adjusted indices and trend cycles for previous periods.

 

Indices of total volume of industrial production are issued for five Main Industrial Groupings (MIG) aggregated groups or divisions1) within the C, D and E sections of the NKD 2002.2), according to the prevailing intended use of all products (goods and services) within the same divisions or groups.

 

Indices of total volume for MIG according to the intended use of industrial production have been calculated on the basis of the Methodology for Short-Term Business Statistics3) of the EU Statistical Office Eurostat.

 

The applied method was used in the calculation of indices for five main industrial groupings aggregated according to the MIG criteria in such a way that the NKD 2002. groups were arranged by prevailing intended use of products classified within the same groups. All products classified into the same group are assigned the same MIG code, irrespective of possible individual differences among them. The arrangement at the level of the NKD 2002. groups or divisions according to the MIG with abbreviations defined has been made in the following way:

 

AE   Energy: divisions 10, 11, 23 and 40

 

AI     Intermediate goods, except energy: divisions 14, 20, 21, 25 – 27 and 37, and groups 15.6, 15.7, 17.1 – 17.3, 24.1 – 24.4, 24.6, 24.7, 28.4, 28.5, 28.7, 31.2 – 31.6, 32.1 and 34.3

 

B     Capital goods: division 30 and groups 28.1 28.3, 28.6, 29.1 29.6, 31.1, 32.2, 33.1 33.3, 34.1, 34.2, 35.1 and 35.2

 

CD  Durable consumer goods: groups 29.7, 32.3, 33.4, 33.5, 35.4, 35.5, 36.1 and 36.2

 

CN  Non-durable consumer goods: divisions 16, 18, 19 and 22 and groups: 15.1 15.5, 15.8, 15.9, 17.4 17.7, 24.5, 36.5 and 36.6.

 

Indices of total volume of industrial production calculated according to the MIG criteria were published for the first time in 1997 in the First Release No. 2.1.1.A/8 − Indices of industrial production and were not comparable to indices of total volume of industrial production by intended use of industrial products hitherto published in first releases and other publications of the Central Bureau of Statistics.

 

The selected NKD 2002. divisions are defined on the basis of their participations in the total industrial gross value added of the Republic of Croatia. Relative amounts with which particular divisions participate in the total industrial gross value added of the Republic of Croatia are published in first releases entitled Indices of industrial production.

 

 

1)  The NKD 2002. division level means that all groups within it are classified into the same intended use

2)  The National Classification of Activities NKD 2002.
(NN, No. 13/03)

3)            Methodology for Short-Term Business Statistics, European
Communities, 2002

 

 

 

The current arrangement is made at the level of the NKD 2002. groups by prevailing intended use for a certain main industrial grouping, as was explained in the above text. By using the former method for the calculation of indices of total volume of industrial production by intended use, the arrangement, starting with the product level, was made by direct assigning of the code of intended use in regard to three main groupings of industrial products, for every single product and then by their aggregation according to the same intended use.

 

In such a way, the calculation of these aggregates was made irrespective of their connection to any specific group of the Uniform Classification of Economic Activities. Terms for these three main groups of intended use and their symbols are the following:

 

Equipment and machinery

Production materials

Consumer goods.

 

 

 

 

 

Abbreviations

 

MIG               Main Industrial Groupings

NKD 2002.  National Classification of Activities, 2002 version

NN                Narodne novine, official gazette of the Republic of Croatia