Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries had to take measures to mitigate its economic consequences. The measures for restricting the economic activities and the movement of people have affected the aggregates of quarterly national accounts as well as the quality and availability of many data sources that are commonly used in estimating the gross domestic product (GDP). Data show that the pandemic has largely led to a slowdown in Croatian economy since mid-March 2020.
The economic activity in the first quarter of 2021 shows a slowdown in the real GDP decline, while in the second quarter of 2021, a significant growth was realised compared to the same period of the previous year. The first estimate shows that the quarterly GDP increased in real terms by 16.1% in the second quarter of 2021, as compared to the same quarter of 2020, which is also the highest real growth since 1995, when the quarterly GDP started being estimated. It was partly the result of the base effect, given that the largest real decline in GDP was present in the second quarter of 2020. Due to the rapid dynamics of the real GDP growth, its level almost reached the level from the same period of 2019 and GDP decreased in real terms by 0.7% in the second quarter of this year, as compared to the same quarter of 2019.
| X-axis | 2008 crisis | 2020 crisis |
|---|---|---|
| -1 | Q3 2008 | Q4 2019 |
| 0 | Q4 2008 | Q1 2020 |
| 1 | Q1 2009 | Q2 2020 |
| 2 | Q2 2009 | Q3 2020 |
| 3 | Q3 2009 | Q4 2020 |
| 4 | Q4 2009 | 1Q 2021 |
| 5 | Q1 2010. | Q2 2021. |
The first estimate shows that the quarterly gross value added (GVA) increased in real terms by 13.5% in the second quarter of 2021, as compared to the same quarter of 2020, based on non-seasonally adjusted data. The quarterly growth in GVA was recorded in all activities and it was mostly influenced by Wholesale and retail trade, Transportation and storage, Accommodation and food service activities, as well as Manufacturing. This growth was largely caused by an increase in the number of tourist arrivals and nights in commercial accommodation establishments.
Industrial production continued to increase strongly in the second quarter, and the growth in industrial production volume within the manufacturing industry was the result of the growth in value added in most sections of that industry. The growth in industrial production volume was realised in parallel with the growth in the volume of construction works, which was recorded in all Construction activities: construction of buildings, civil engineering and other specialised construction activities.
Household consumption increased by 18.4% in the second quarter of 2021, which is a positive trend compared to the decrease of 0.9% in the first quarter of 2021. The increase in the growth rate was mostly influenced by the increase in the turnover from catering services and transport services (due to the increase in passenger kilometres), the increase in recreation and culture services (turnover from recreation and sports activities) and the increase in retail trade turnover.
Gross fixed capital formation increased by 18.3% in real terms in the second quarter of 2021, which contributed to the GDP growth. The increase in gross fixed capital formation was accompanied by an increase in the volume of construction works and an increase in the volume of plants and equipment.
The import as well as the export of goods and services recorded a significant increase in real terms. Although a recovery is noticeable in the export of services, which increased by 56.3% compared to the same quarter of 2020, it is still below the pre-recession 2019 level. However, in addition to the increase compared the same period of 2020, the export of goods increased by 21.0% in real terms compared to the second quarter of 2019. The import of goods and services decreased by 5.5% in real terms compared to the same period of 2019.
